A newly-discussed report of a study published June 22 by Penn State researchers in the journal Science Translational Medicine (STM) suggests that there were actually 8.7 million U.S. coronavirus cases during a three-week period in March, The Hill's Changing America site reported June 23 in an article by Joseph Guzman. Penn State University researchers analyzed surveillance data on influenza-like illnesses (ILI) from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that were never diagnosed as coronavirus, influenza, or any other viruses, Guzman reports. However, researchers found a spike in ILI in March 2020 that “showed a near perfect correlation with the spread of coronavirus around the country.” The researchers also estimate infection rates for each state in the study, reporting that states with higher per-capita rates of infection also had higher per-capita surge in excess ILI.
This new study suggests that the number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. in a three-week period in March could have been 80 times greater, and doubled nearly twice as fast as originally reported, amounting to more than 8.7 million coronavirus cases that went undiagnosed.
Only 100,000 coronavirus cases were reported during that period in March, due to a shortage of testing kits, Guzman reports.
Justin Silverman of Penn State wrote: “Our results suggest that the overwhelming effects of COVID-19 may have less to do with the virus’ lethality and more to do with how quickly it was able to spread through communities initially,” Silverman explained. “A lower fatality rate coupled with a higher prevalence of disease and rapid growth of regional epidemics provides an alternative explanation of the large number of deaths and overcrowding of hospitals we have seen in certain areas of the world.” [AGG]