Skip to content

The only number that doesn’t grow exponentially is zero.

And any R value (for the average number of new infections spread per infected person) above 1 will result in exponential growth in any country, region, etc., that has not gotten the number of community transmission cases to zero.

If the number is all the way down to zero — the goal in China, Thailand, and New Zealand, for example — it is possible to dramatically roll back the public health measures used to prevent the spread of the virus, returning to something much more like normal life.

Consider these examples:

This post is for paying subscribers only

Subscribe

Already have an account? Sign In