Dr. Michael Osterholm addressed the danger of the fear-mongering over the aggressive drive of the government’s Operation Warp Speed program to rapidly develop a coronavirus vaccine, and also answered questions as to what is known and not known regarding the transmission of the virus. Osterholm, who spoke Monday morning on Minnesota Public Radio, is the well-known director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. Osterholm re-emphasized the overall situation, where we cannot even carry out the normal and proper epidemiology of testing, tracking and isolation until we discipline ourselves sufficiently so as to massively drive down the infection rate. The present retreat from around a peak of 70,000 to around 50,000 is still way above the 20,000 rate achieved prior to reopenings.
When the suggestion was made that Warp Speed’s rapid mobilization of a vaccine made people nervous about safety issues, Osterholm efficiently judoed the discussion. First, he promised that he and others would scream to the heavens if and when any steps were missing in the rollout of vaccines, but nothing like that was presently the case. Further, irresponsible rumor-mongering would only undercut the needed participation level in vaccines. While he posed that the aggressive Russian schedule for the deployment of a vaccine over the next 30-60 days had the type of safeguards that people would be comfortable with here, he said that the vaccine work in the U.S. and Europe was very thorough. The first two U.S. vaccines entered their Phase 3 clinical trials last week, and with any luck, at least one of them should bear some good news within a couple of months. However, Democratic campaign strategists for months, Joe Biden last week, and the New York Times on Monday have all tried to shame President Trump into slowing down the vaccine development, suggesting that the push for a vaccine is a campaign trick.
In response to an industrial engineer, responsible for opening up factories, Osterholm emphasized his and other’s ongoing studies on aero-biology. He offered that the safe turnover of air in a room would likely have to be not once an hour, but an order of magnitude greater – that is, 10-12 times an hour. The particulates in the air – which he compared to what people can see of dust particles when sunlight streams into an area, or can smell from a cigarette forty feet away on a sidewalk — seem to work cumulatively over say an hour or so. Early studies, which he thinks may be public within weeks, suggest that five minutes in a grocery store is a significantly different experience than an hour, in terms of the working of the virus.
Finally, Osterholm expressed his horror over the irresponsibility of the upcoming motorcycle bacchanalia in Sturgis, SD, scheduled to begin this Friday. He said the 275,000 people gathered over the nine days guarantees a new and totally unnecessary outbreak, with the attendees spreading the disease around the country as they return home. (The Sturgis city council found in their survey of town residents that over 60% wanted to cancel, but, regardless, voted to hold the annual event, scheduled for August 7–16.) He called the lack of judgment insane.
