The latest, November employment report from the U.S. Labor Department, released Dec. 4, showed a stagnant and dismal condition of mass unemployment, unaffected by the modest increases in industrial production and manufacturing activity which are occurring, and which have brought the U.S. economy back to within a few percent of its February level in those regards.
The weekly unemployment claims reports have for two months now shown a picture of mass unemployment of Americans who had been “informally” or contract-employed, or operating very small businesses, before the pandemic triggered shutdowns; this, while full-time, regular employment has returned closer to its year-ago level.
Regarding this November report, forget the “headline” figures: 245,000 total job gain is certainly a large drop from prior months, which were low enough; the official unemployment rate falling from 6.9% to 6.7% means very little except that large numbers are out of the labor force. If we look at the Household survey which shows this drop in the unemployment rate, it is of more concern than even the Establishment survey. The former reports 560,000 Americans leaving the workforce, net, in November; the labor force itself shrinking by 400,000, and a negative change in both employment (by -74,000 jobs) and official unemployment (by -326,000). This survey is probably even less accurate than the Establishment survey, as it directly reflects a smaller number of Americans; but it is not meaningless and its November message is unmistakeable: mass unemployment becoming long-term unemployment becoming abandonment of the workforce.
