The Johns Hopkins University-based China-Africa Research Initiative, headed by Deborah Brautigam, has reported extensively on Chinese lending in Africa, through a unique database the research group has assembled. They have repeatedly debunked the “debt-trap” myth, and she is the co-author with Meg Rithmire of the Feb. 6 Atlantic article “There Is No Chinese ‘Debt Trap.’” In their summary of 20 years of Chinese lending, they find that:
• Chinese lending peaked in 2016, at $28 billion.
• If Angola (which received over $15 billion in lending in 2016) is excluded, Chinese lending peaked in 2013, the year the Belt and Road Initiative was launched.
• Countries that have benefitted from Chinese refinancing or debt relief have seen future financing shrink. By 2019, Chinese lending was concentrated in countries that had not requested debt relief.
• Lending from the Chinese Eximbank, the only source of concessional loans, peaked in 2013, at around $10.4 billion, down to $4 billion in 2019.
