While official new cases of COVID-19 may have peaked in the United States, Brazil, and possibly Turkey and India continue as massive hotbeds of the coronavirus and its variants. India today reported yet another new record, now about 315,000 new cases — the greatest number for new cases, by far, for any country during the pandemic. The California-India “double mutation” variant that first ripped through the state of Maharashtra, with its populous capital, Mumbai, is a key factor in the spread. Meanwhile, Brazil seems to have peaked about a month ago, but has only had a slow, modest decline in daily new cases. The United States may have peaked about two weeks ago, and there’s evidence that the Covid explosion in Turkey may have paused in the last few days, although the number of cases per million is still extremely high, at over 700. Greater numbers of cases present a “Petri dish” environment for breeding new strains.
In the United States, much credit is due to the extensive vaccine availability. The Washington Examiner looked through some of the data from mid-December to early April, finding that the largest drop in new infections (86%) is indeed among those who are 65 and older, the ones with the highest percentage of vaccinations. Other studies show that infections among the residents and staff of nursing homes from December to March went down by 96%.
However, in Chile, which has vaccinated on a par with the United States (both are in the range of 60-70 doses per 100 people), new cases have continued upward, significantly from the “Manaus'’ variant, P.1. It is possible that this is because the Chinese Coronavac vaccine, which has constituted 93% of Chile’s vaccine doses, may confer most of its protection only after the second shot, and may not be as effective against P.1.
