The RAND Corporation put out a new report yesterday which implies that NATO might lose a nuclear war with Russia. “Although the overall military power of the United States and the NATO alliance vastly outstrips that of Russia, a regional conflict close to Russia’s borders would pose enormous challenges and could result in defeat for the West,” the study says, reports Stars & Stripes. “Any conventional conflict with Russia will have to be fought in a way designed to limit the risk of nuclear escalation, which might constrain NATO from employing its full capabilities,” it said. “Russia’s arsenal of (non-strategic nuclear weapons) and its potential employment of limited nuclear options also poses a vitally important puzzle for U.S. and NATO officials.”
S&S notes that during the Cold War MAD was considered sufficient to avoid a conflict, but since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the U.S.-led NATO alliance has since expanded to incorporate areas previously occupied by, or aligned with, the Soviets, while Russian military positions have mainly been reduced to the homeland. “Although NATO is vulnerable to Russian (nonstrategic nuclear) attacks … a NATO attack on Russian territory is liable to be much more escalatory than a Russian attack on targets in a non-nuclear NATO state such as Germany or Italy,” Rand said.
