Lloyds, whose main shareholder is the British government, sees a “Green Cold War” as the most probable scenario in a global climate transition. Without using this characterization, it describes a malthusian fight for control of “green” resources.
“Despite the more cooperative ambitions displayed at COP 26,” says the Lloyds “Emerging Risk Report 2022,” the outfit asserts that “the world’s major powers are already on course for unconstrained geostrategic competition. Given how an ‘unconstrained geostrategic competition’ – by definition – negates the possibility of compartmentalizing even those issues against which competing powers would have a mutual interest in joining efforts, there is no reason to believe that climate change will not end up caught in great power politics. Today’s geopolitics are not driven by Cold War ideology, yet contemporary great powers’ pursuit of strategic stability is indeed characterized by traditional Cold War dynamics, whereby everything is captured within the broader confrontation between rival powers. Issues concerning the supply chains for the upcoming post-carbon global economy have long been framed as a matter of national security on all sides and a partial decoupling between the world’s major economies is already underway. Climate change is set to become the ultimate test of whether competition for political and economic dominance and cooperation for the pursuit of collective interest can coexist in the face of a common challenge. Nevertheless, a ‘Green Cold War’ scenario must be considered a concrete possibility.”
The other two scenarios, global cooperation and anarchic transition, are given as less probable. (https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-insights/risk-reports/library/shifting-powers-climate-cooperation-chaos-or-competition}
