In light of the egregious and infuriating Russian actions—moving tanks and troops from their scheduled military exercises back towards their bases—and the debilitating effect this was having on Presidents Macron, Scholz, and even Biden earlier this week, Western “intelligence” sources were forced to escalate their “Russian imminent invasion” narratives. And within 24 hours, President Biden was repeating such blather publicly.
Evidently, when most intelligence services were momentarily taken aback at the lack of invasions on February 15 or 16, it was Estonia’s intelligence service that was able to boldly relaunch the narrative offensive, offering their new official assessment: “The Russian Armed Forces are ready to embark on a full-scale military operation against Ukraine from the second half of February….” They have “mobilized 150,000 men on the Ukrainian border, deploying units and capabilities from all its military districts…. This is the single largest military buildup by Russia in the past 30 years.” Never mind that Ukraine’s defense experts had just stated that Russia’s present deployment is about 100,000 men smaller than that of months ago, and at a level and state of mobilization that eliminates any invasion consideration. Because Wednesday was just getting started.
First, a “senior U.S. administration official” told the AP—anonymously, of course—that the West has detected that Russia had increased its force near Ukraine by 7,000 troops. And Russian-inspired claims of unmarked graves of civilians allegedly killed by Ukrainian forces is further evidence of the next imminent Russian invasion. AP at least acknowledged that the official did not provide any underlying evidence for the assertions.
Then, State Department spokesman Ned Price said the U.S. had seen “more Russian forces, not fewer…. This is the Russian playbook, to paint a picture publicly … while they do the opposite.” Price spoke in his own name, as he’s proven to be the living evidence of the veracity of his own words. Secretary of State Antony Blinken explained: “There’s what Russia says and what Russia does, and we haven’t seen any pullback of its forces.” He then took to ABC News to squawk like a chickenhawk: “We haven’t seen a pullback. He [Putin] can pull the trigger. He can pull it today. He can pull it tomorrow. He can pull it next week. The forces are there if he wants to renew aggression against Ukraine.”
By Wednesday evening, things were closing in on the President, as the anonymous “senior U.S. administration official” had become a “senior White House official": “So yesterday, the Russian government said it was withdrawing troops from the border with Ukraine…. But we now know it was false.” Russia is “privately mobilizing for war” based upon the launching of “a false pretext at any moment.” Finally, on Thursday morning, it was the turn of U.S. Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas Greenfield: “The evidence on the ground is that Russia is moving toward an imminent invasion.” (Disclaimer: “Evidence” doesn’t mean what you used to think it means... and Greenfield is no Ned Price!)
A bit later, Thursday morning, enter Joe Biden amidst reporters: “Every indication that we have is that they are prepared to go into Ukraine, attack Ukraine,” adding that such an attack “will happen within the next several days… every indication that we have is that they are prepared to go into Ukraine, attack Ukraine. My sense is, it will happen within the next several days.” It is not clear that the man stood a chance.
Dmitry Peskov, the spokesman for the Kremlin, after months of denials of any interest in invading Ukraine, added the obvious: such a statement by Biden “elevates tensions.” Rossini’s “La Calunnia” aria (from his “Barber of Seville"), a recommended elixir of sanity in these remarkable times, may help address some of these elevated tensions.