In an interview run on CGTN today with Tian Wei, Maximo Torero, FAO Chief Economist, warned that if the Ukraine war is not concluded by the end of March, it could create an even bigger food crisis next year. He reiterated his same points made March 11 while attending the FAO Asia-Pacific meeting in Dhaka, also carried at the time by CGTN, and reported in the EIR Alert.
Torero reviewed the current problems resulting from the Ukraine crisis blocking and stopping exports from Ukraine and Russia, which account for 30 percent of world wheat exports, and big export-shares of edible oils and corn/maize, and warned about a food crisis in 2023. Among the obvious problems, the continuation of warfare will limit planting of crops this year in Ukraine, and possibly in Russia. The rising costs of energy and fertilizer hyperinflation and scarcity, thanks especially to the sanctions against Russia, will dampen crop output elsewhere. Already, major grain import-dependent countries, including Egypt, Indonesia, and Bangladesh, are experiencing a serious crisis. Terero repeated his estimation given at the Asia-Pacific conference last week, that there is about a 20-million-metric-ton grain gap to be filled in 2022 from the absence of the Ukrainian and Russian grain not being shipped right now, and that this could be filled by the U.S., Australia, Argentina, and India. India may have 7 mmt for export. But next year could be bleak, without contingency measures.
