Dmitry Trenin, until recently the Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center (connected to the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), the first Russian citizen to hold that position, has issued an insightful paper in Russia’s way forward now that the U.S./NATO has essentially declared war on Russia, including a stern warning of the danger of nuclear war. Trenin is now a member of Russia’s Foreign and Defense Policy Council.
Trenin, who served from 1972-1993 in the Soviet and Russia military forces, and holds a PhD in history from the Institute of U.S. and Canadian Studies of the Soviet Academy of Sciences, titled his paper “How Russia Must Reinvent Itself To Defeat the West’s ‘Hybrid War.’” His extensive cooperation with the U.S. think-tank elite makes his insight in this crisis most relevant. The article was prepared based on the author’s May 6 speech at the 30th Assembly of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy.
Trenin asserts that it is “an illusory hope that Russia’s opponents will listen to reason” or that their leadership will change in the near term, which “completely nullifies Russia’s previous foreign policy strategy towards the U.S. and EU.” He warns that it is impossible to win, or even to “survive, if the elites remain fixated on further personal enrichment and society is left in a depressed and overly relaxed state.” He notes that the strategy of the West is to “defeat” Russia, and that the hybrid war will move further East from Ukraine, and that Russia’s “existence in its current form will be contested.” Therefore, he says, “The enemy’s strategy should be actively countered.” This requires above all that the nation “strengthen the independence of Russia as a civilization.”
Russia must “achieve strategic success in Ukraine,” which will be a “painful blow to U.S. global hegemony,” and create a “new world order … together with non-Western countries,” naming China, India, Brazil, Turkey, ASEAN, Gulf states, Iran, Egypt, Algeria, Israel, South Africa, Pakistan, Argentina Mexico “and others,” calling this the “larger and more dynamic part” of the world. They must assist in “building international institutions,” naming the EAEU, SCO, CSTO, BRICS as examples. “Russia is capable of playing a leading role in developing a framework ideology for these organizations, harmonizing the interests of partner countries and coordinating on common agendas.”
He warns: “Never since the end of the Soviet-American confrontation has the prevention of nuclear war been more relevant than now. The new challenge after achieving strategic success in Ukraine will be to force NATO countries to actually recognize Russian interests and to secure the new borders of Russia.” He says the intention is not to damage the enemy, but to “use various irritants to divert the opponents’ attention and resources from the Russian focus.” Most important, he adds, is “developing a strategy for an emerging confrontation between the U.S. and China.” It is the Russia-China relationship which differentiates this conflict from the Cold War.
