Robert Hunter, U.S. Ambassador to NATO from 1993-1998, wrote in the Quincy Institute’s publication, Responsible Statecraft, “This Year’s NATO Summit Should Be Postponed” (the title of his piece), before its failure further discredits NATO. Hunter is a long-time diplomat, with a thoroughly Establishment pedigree, and it is likely that he is speaking for more than just himself here.
Hunter discusses the obvious tensions: Hungary’s Orban refusing to condemn Russia, France’s Macron saying the West should not “humiliate” Russia, and the double-speak in the U.S. about whether we want to “weaken” Russia or whether we actually want to encourage negotiations. Further, many countries are uneasy about supplying weapons, as they know they then become co-belligerents in a war against Russia. And, of course, the blowback from the sanctions is wreaking havoc in Europe. In addition, the Sweden-Finland-Turkey debacle, where it’s not clear that Sweden’s and Finland’s applications to join NATO will be accepted anytime soon, is further eroding confidence and unity in the alliance.
And then, very carefully, he even mentions that “it has always been clear that Ukraine could never get unanimity among the allies to be given the NATO Treaty’s Article 5 commitment to declare war if it were invaded.” NATO should have learned its lesson after promising NATO membership to Georgia in 2008, which then precipitated the South Ossetia war with Russia. This “should have sent a signal to NATO that agreeing to push NATO’s borders right up against Russia in Ukraine, on the classic invasion route to and from Central Europe, could not be tolerated by any government in the Kremlin.”
