Following the announcement by authorities in Poland earlier this year, advising their citizens that foraging firewood from forests to burn at home might help them blunt the inconvenient but necessary loss of Russian fossil fuel, while they help deliver that final death blow to Russia through those pesky sanctions, certain geniuses at Deutsche Bank are now also considering wood as the future fuel for the dark age.
According to a July 15 article by the pseudonymous “Tyler Durden” on Zero Hedge, Deutsche Bank senior economist Eric Heymann reviewed scenarios for dealing with the possibility that Nord Stream 1 may not come back online, following its scheduled maintenance period. Heymann writes, “We developed three scenarios on how Russian gas supplies to Germany via Nord Stream 1 as well as the transition point Waidhaus might evolve over the next few months.”
The first two scenarios deal with either a return to the status quo ante, or another ratchet down in delivery. The third scenario, as reported by Zero Hedge, describes “the downside case: welcome to a winter of gas rationing. In the third scenario, DB assumes that Russia completely turns off the gas taps to Germany after the maintenance period. That also includes supplies via Waidhaus over the next few months. This is quite a large number in historical comparison even though it is below the recent peak of roughly 3,000 GWh per day. The Netherlands and Norway have already increased their exports to Germany since late May by roughly 20% (with significant volatility).”
