A former Lithuanian chief of defense, Lt. Gen. Valdas Tutkus, has punched holes in notions that the recent series of attacks that Russia has suffered in Crimea mean that the tide of the war is changing. Such optimism, he says, might be premature. Tutkus, while not totally breaking with the NATO narrative, assesses, like Scott Ritter and other real military professionals, that Kiev does not have the capacity to launch a large-scale counter-offensive. “Ukraine is today in a perfect position to launch a counter-offensive because bridges [in Kherson] have been destroyed and the [Crimean] airbase is currently ineffective too,” he told Lithuanian Radio and Television in an interview published yesterday. “But my impression is that Ukraine does not have the capacity to do so at the moment.”
“There is not enough manpower. Let’s not forget that Ukraine has a very difficult situation in the east, where the Russians have concentrated their forces and are having some success. Not as much as they would like, but success nonetheless,” Tutkus said in response to a followup question. “And in the Kherson area, clearly, Ukraine is having some success, also not as much, but some success nonetheless. In Kherson, I would say that the Russian and Ukrainian forces are evenly matched, while an offensive requires advantage of at least 3-4 times.”
