When the Natural Gas Runs Out: The Dismal Economics of 'Punishing' Russia

Western think tanks and politicians have been trying to calculate how hard to squeeze their own populations, so as to maintain the party line against Russia. Aurora Energy Research (AER) cracked the numbers and reported that the EU bloc, unless it continues to receive Russian gas, must cut consumption of natural gas by 15% every month in order to save enough gas to make it to March 2023. AER used the data intelligence firm ICIS, with calculations based upon having fully stocked storage facilities going into the winter. “To cope with this crisis situation, demand reduction will be even more important than storage,” explained Simone Tagliapietra, an AER senior. Since several months (presumably 5-6 months) of the 15% cut each month would allow the bloc’s storage facilities to come in at an historically low 25% level each month that the population fails to go without throughout the winter, pushes up the date that all stored natural gas is gone.