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Remember when Georgia’s runoff gave Democrats 51 seats in the U.S. Senate? Well, Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has said not so fast, my friend. Yesterday she announced she had left the Democratic Party, and will serve as an Independent, although she says she will generally continue to vote with the Democratic Party. As it stands now, the Democrats will have 48 seats, the GOP 49, with three independents.

Still, Sinema’s switch doesn’t necessarily change the Senate’s voting math. Sinema told the Arizona Republic she intends to mostly align with the Democrats and keep her committee assignments from that party (which Majority Leader Chuck Schumer confirmed he had agreed to honor). Alongside fellow Independent Sens. Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, she appears set to give the party 51 seats when it comes to organizational questions, allowing them to hold majorities on committees.

Considering that she may not alter her legislative habits, why did Sinema make this decision? Her reelection outlook in 2024 may help explain her move, although her centrist attitudes likely played some role.