A newly released study from the Rand Corporation, “Avoiding a Long War: U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict,” assesses that an extended conflict in Ukraine would not benefit the U.S.: “U.S. interests would be best served by avoiding a protracted conflict. The costs and risks of a long war in Ukraine are significant and outweigh the possible benefits of such a trajectory for the United States.” ((https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html)
Tables 3 and 4 consider that the “benefits” of a protracted war are at most moderate (weakening Russia at this point provides diminishing returns) while the “costs” are highly significant, including the threat of nuclear war.
But what most worries these Rand creeps is that excess focus on Ukraine diverts attention from the second front in the war against a new paradigm: China.
