Berliner Zeitung published an op-ed on Feb. 7 by Brig. Gen. Helmut Ganser (ret.), with his sharp assessment of where the Ukraine war is heading. Headlined “Brigadier General Ganser: ‘This Is About a Sober and Rational Analysis,’” he writes in part:
“Regardless of international law, the NATO states are moving toward a gray zone with the continued increase in their weapons system transfers, in which the boundaries beyond which NATO ultimately becomes a party to the war are becoming blurred. All the more so, with German tank deliveries now on the rise, Germany’s share of responsibility for the further course of the war and its consequences for European security is growing.
“Regarding the perspective for ending this destructive war, go back again to Clausewitz. ‘As soon as the expenditure of effort is so great that the value of the political objective can no longer balance it, this objective must be abandoned and peace followed.’ Looking ahead to the coming months, this point does not appear to have been reached in either Moscow or Kiev. Russia will launch a major offensive in the near term, before Western tanks are incorporated into Ukrainian land forces.
“Tens of thousands more soldiers and civilians are likely to perish before an end to the bloodshed is in sight. Whether the course of the front will even change significantly in the fighting is anything but certain. Moreover, Clausewitz could not have foreseen in the 19th century that his equation would be challenged over 100 years later by the existence of weapons of mass destruction. These are the nuclear weapons in numbers and destructive potential of the two nuclear superpowers that could make Earth uninhabitable in a dystopian escalation scenario.
“The West’s military-political confrontation with Russia is more dangerous today than during the height of the Cold War. To dismiss the risk of escalation by referring to irrational fears is grossly negligent, even irresponsible. What is needed here is a sober and rational analysis. The heads of government of the NATO states have a responsibility to prevent damage to their countries and populations. It remains a reason of state to avoid nuclear escalation at all costs.” (https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik-gesellschaft/russland-ukraine-krieg-brigadegeneral-helmut-ganser-es-bleibt-staatsraison-eine-nukleare-eskalation-zu-vermeiden-li.314751)
The Berliner Zeitung is a leading newspaper in Germany’s capital. Its publisher, Holder Friedrich, has signed the Wagenknecht-Schwarzer manifesto for peace. (https://www.change.org/p/manifestfuerfrieden-aufstandfuerfrieden )
