The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI ) released a new report on April 28, “Dangerous Targets: Civilian Nuclear Infrastructure and the War in Ukraine,” which states that Russia may “manufacture a radiological incident,” at the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), to “spoil” a Ukrainian counter-offensive, even though there is no evidence that this is being—or has ever been—considered by the Russians as a strategy. The raising of this scenario twice in the report’s Executive Summary may indicate that it is something RUSI contemplates charging Russia with, or perhaps have Ukrainian forces, or NATO secretive operatives carry out as a “false flag” operation, which would bring on a total, likely nuclear confrontation between NATO and Russia. (https://static.rusi.org/398-SR-Dangerous-Targets-web-final.pdf)
The RUSI report couches itself in concern for the safety of the nuclear plants in Ukraine, asserting that “over the past year, Russia’s military activity in Ukraine has resulted in serious threats to the safety and security of Ukraine’s nuclear infrastructure….” After listing a series of purported risks that could produce a Chernobyl-like disaster (April 26, 1986), it states: “Finally, the possibility that Russia may manufacture a radiological incident at the ZNPP or another facility to spoil a Ukrainian offensive should not be disregarded.”
The RUSI report admits that “there is no current indication that Russia is planning to carry out strikes intentionally targeting Ukrainian nuclear power plants, although the option of nuclear sabotage in Ukraine appears to have been considered by Moscow.”
How to respond to the (non-existent) threat? “Establish deterrence against a deliberately manufactured radiological incident by making clear to Russia that any such incident would be followed by a massive response to mitigate damage and expanded support for Ukraine’s war effort.” Given RUSI’s track record, that “massive response” clearly includes NATO’s direct involvement in the fighting, up to and including launching nuclear provocations.
