Last year’s grain deal with Ukraine and Russia could have been a ‘win-win,’ getting precious food and fertilizer to needy countries around the world. However, while Russia has allowed Ukraiine to export grain via the Baltic Sea that they control, the UN’s Secretary-General Antonio Guterres who brokered the deal has been unable to get cooperation from Western countries to allow Russia’s agricultural sector to participate. In particular, Western interference with sanctions has kept the Russian Agricultural Bank out of the SWIFT payments system, preventing Russia’s importing of agricultural machinery, the removal of insurancee restrictions, port access for Russian sihps and cargo, and blocking transactions of Russian fertilizer companies.
Despite this well-known problem, Russia has granted two extensions of the agreement, the last one in March for a shortened period of 60 days, to allow Guterres to secure Western cooperation. Guterres said at the time that the UN would “do everything possible to preserve the integrity” of the deal and make sure that it continued to function. There’s been no progress. Yesterday Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov issued a more definitive warning on a May 18 end to the arrangement: “We know UN representatives are making some efforts, but the second half of the deal is still not working, and its conditions are not being implemented. No deal can stand on one leg – it needs two legs to stand on. In this sense, judging by how things are today, the prospects are not so good.”