The starting place for any investigation into something like the events in Russia over the weekend is the question, cui bono, who benefits. With that in mind, consider the following.
The Times of London (founded 1785) pronounced today that the U.K. must “prepare for sudden collapse of Russia” in the wake of what they called a “failed coup attempt.” According to the flagship Establishment daily, “internal government assessments” are the basis for this warning.
In Washington, D.C., the Anglophile Hudson Institute is on a rampage with the same campaign. Hudson held an online panel discussion of its “experts” on June 26, claiming that although Prigozhin’s mutiny did not last long, it will catalyze the dissolution of Russia. Luke Coffey, Hudson’s point-person for the “Break Up Russia” campaign, also penned an article for Foreign Policy magazine, published Monday under the hyped-up headline: “A Warlord Marching on Moscow Is Just a Foretaste of What Might Come. Here’s How To Prepare.”
The discussion was titled “Mutiny in Russia: Assessing the Implications of Prigozhin’s March on Moscow.” The four speakers from Hudson—Peter Rough, Coffey, Can Kasapoğlu, and Rebeccah Heinrichs—between them asserted that Russia is now at a high risk of civil war, but the rate of its dissolution will depend on how badly the Ukraine war goes for them. However, after this weekend’s events in Russia, NATO capitals should see that this is a winnable war, and now arm Ukraine for victory, not merely for its survival.
Kasapoglu pronounced, that with Prigozhin’s mutiny and the manner of its settlement, President Putin’s “geopolitical goal” which he presented in his 2007 speech at the Munich Security Conference—calling for an international security architecture which ensured the sovereign right of Russia to develop without the threat of NATO on its borders—is now “finished,” “over,” and the only question now is, who will win the game of musical chairs and end up in power in Russia.? While not sufficient in itself, the putsch attempt could become the catalyst for internal conflict in Russia, he added.
