The Washington Post today ran a lengthy article by “Russia expert” Leonid Bershidsky headlined “Putin’s Nuclear Scare Tactics Will Fall Flat.” His analysis is that the Karaganov article was part of a calculated Russian ploy. “The game being played here is, of course, a time-tested good cop/bad cop one. Vladimir Putin, who used his state-of-the-nation address in 2018 to threaten the U.S. with Russia’s new hypersonic weapons, now has taken on the good-cop part.”
Bershidsky confidently asserts that Putin is bluffing, and that the only real red line is if Russia’s “internationally recognized territory” is massively invaded—i.e., Crimea and the Donbass are fair game. “The Russian response to previous weapon supply escalations has been consistently underwhelming: Russia simply adapted to losing one trump card after another. This has emboldened the U.K. to arm Ukraine with longer-range Storm Shadow missiles, which Russia struggles to shoot down, and a coalition of eight European countries plus the U.S. to start active preparations, including pilot training, for the handover of F-16 fighter aircraft….
“No nukes will fly until Russia faces an existential threat, such as a massive invasion of its internationally recognized territory. No matter what the Kremlin and its various messengers may say, Ukraine’s efforts to liberate its own territory do not represent such a threat, not even to Putin.”
