National Public Radio, in an article titled, “The Mutiny in Russia May Be Over. But It Still Damages Putin,” reported that “U.S. intelligence had learned earlier this month that Prigozhin was planning to take military action inside Russia, according to two U.S. officials. Biden administration officials briefed the Gang of Eight, the top congressional leaders who receive regular intelligence briefings, this past week that the Wagner Group was planning to take military action against the Russian military’s leadership, a source familiar with the matter confirmed.”
The New York Times meanwhile, reported that U.S. intelligence agencies were seeing signs for days that Prigozhin was plotting a march on Moscow. The information shows that the United States was aware of impending events in Russia, similar to how intelligence agencies had warned in late 2021 that Vladimir V. Putin was planning to invade Ukraine, the Times says, but this time they kept the intelligence a secret. U.S. officials felt that if they said anything, Mr. Putin could accuse them of orchestrating a coup. And they clearly had little interest in helping Mr. Putin avoid a major, embarrassing fracturing of his support, the Times says. (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/24/world/europe/us-intel-prigozhin-warning.html )
In this case, the information that the long-running feud between Prigozhin, who got his start as “Putin’s chef” in St. Petersburg, and Russian defense officials was about to devolve into conflict was considered both solid and alarming, the Times report continues. Prigozhin is known for his brutality, and had he succeeded in ousting the officials, he would likely have been an unpredictable leader. And the possibility that a major nuclear-armed rival of the United States could descend into internal chaos carried with it a new set of risks. [cjo]
