Scott Ritter argues in a hard hitting op-ed yesterday in Sputnik that the Biden Administration’s arguments for sending cluster munitions to Ukraine are fraudulent. He starts with the claim, made by both Jake Sullivan and Colin Kahl at the Pentagon that the M864 DPICM (Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munition) that the U.S. plans to send to Ukraine, will only consist of rounds with a certified dud rate of under 2%. This, he says, is a calculated lie, as the testing was done under laboratory conditions which will not exist in Ukraine. When employed in real-life situations, the “dud” rate of the sub-munitions will be much higher—often up to 20%, Ritter says. “Rough terrain, mud, soft soil, trees, and bushes all conspire to prevent the sub-munitions from detonating,” he writes. “Moreover, given that the lifespan of a 155mm artillery shell is 20 years, and that production of the M864 round, which began in 1987, terminated in 1996, the vast majority of the M864 artillery shells being provided to Ukraine have reached or exceeded their expiration date, which means that there is an increased probability that many of these shells will not perform as designed.” And the U.S. government knows this. “The fact is that the M864 DPICM round being delivered to Ukraine is neither as reliable or safe as the Biden administration contends.”
Ritter also argues that the lethality of the DPICM rounds will also turn out to be much lower than claimed. The U.S. army calculates—again under ideal conditions—that a DPICM round is 5-15 times more lethal than that of a regular artillery shell, but under real conditions it degrades significantly. “In short, the M864 is not a ‘game changer,’” Ritter says. “The Ukrainian forces will achieve limited tactical advantage through its employment, and in many cases, see their probability of kill factors drop.”
