The second ECOWAS meeting on Thursday, Aug. 10 resulted in a Final Communiqué that was ambiguous on the face of it, but easier to “read” when the strong resistance of Nigeria’s northern state governors (and nearly everyone else, including Islamic, Catholic and Protestant authorities), and the state of military unpreparedness, were taken into account (not to mention that the military command itself would have been divided). Overhanging all discussions was the fate of Libya in 2011 and the ugly implications for the entire region of the destruction of Libya.
Still, the military chiefs were supposed to meet on Saturday, Aug. 12, to growl fiercely and go through the motions of planning an invasion. But after the Aug. 10 meeting, the Russian Foreign Ministry warned again, and more pointedly, that there should not be any invasion. The warning was simply this: Such an action would trigger a “protracted confrontation,” with very serious consequences for the whole region.