“The world won’t likely remember gentle admonitions from President Biden about observing the rule of law. It will instead focus on the U.S. effectively giving a green light for—and materially assisting—an assault that not only flouts the laws of war but brings death and suffering to thousands of innocent persons,” writes 28-year CIA veteran Paul Pillar in an article published by Responsible Statecraft.
“Israel has now embarked on a violent offensive against the Gaza Strip and its residents. … [I]t is in large part an act of raw revenge. It is a national catharsis amid an atmosphere of intense grief and anger,” the analyst writes. While outrage against the attack by Hamas is understandable, “Being understandable is not the same as being wise or effective, for Israel itself or for regional peace and security.”
Pillar warns that Israel’s reaction will cause “animosity across the region and most of the rest of the world,” that it will set back Israel’s efforts at normalizing relations with Arab governments, and that it threatens to cause an escalation into broader warfare.
Even if Israel were to utterly defeat Hamas and end its status as Gaza’s government-in-fact, “then a big unanswered question is, who does govern the Gaza Strip?” What chaos would be unleashed?
In the U.S., Pillar cites domestic political concerns as driving a frenzy among American politicians. It is “hazardous to one’s political health,” he writes, “to say anything that places the crisis within the context of longstanding Israeli policies toward the Palestinians.”
While nations including Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Russia, and China call for de-escalation, the U.S. sends military support and helped defeat a UN Security Council resolution on humanitarian assistance. What national interest does this policy serve? “Israel violently exacting revenge in this case is not a U.S. interest,” assesses Pillar. In fact, look at the damage done to U.S. credibility by the decision to renege on U.S. financial commitments to Iran following the recent prisoner swap deal.
Pillar is among a growing chorus of voices of institutional stature in the U.S. warning of the disaster that could ensue if policy towards the region is not changed swiftly.
