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Narrative That War vs Russia Will Come in Two Years Is Based on Chicken-Game Projections

German and European media have prominently covered an article by Oslo Nuclear Project fellow Fabian Hoffmann, giving credibility to the narrative that there will be a war between NATO and Russia in two to three years. The narrative is based on a forecast that the Russians, which is alleged to intend to initiate the war, will conduct the war not as a conventional one (such as the war in Ukraine), but as a chicken game based on “escalation control and escalation management.”

The author, a PhD student, insists that Russia is aware of its conventional inferiority to NATO forces and will strike NATO countries’ civilian infrastructure (Nord Stream anyone?) and bet on the will of such countries to end the war early in order to avoid more destruction.

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