March 25, 2024 (EIRNS)—"The declaration by the five nuclear powers on January 3, 2022, that `nuclear war should not be waged’ and that `there can be no winners,’ seems like a relic of the past,” leading Russian strategic thinker Dmitry Trenin asserted in a new article first appearing in Global Affairs on March 21 under the headline “Rethinking Strategic Stability,” and then translated on March 23 in RT with the more suggestive title “Dmitry Trenin: It’s Time for Russia To Give the West a Nuclear Reminder.”
Trenin is a research professor at Russia’s Higher School of Economics and a lead research fellow at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO). He is also a member of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC). Back in June 2023 he published a widely read article arguing for a change in Russian nuclear doctrine to open the door for a Russian first strike, which President Vladimir Putin answered in the negative in a personal exchange with Trenin at a public event.
With the worsening strategic crisis, Trenin is circling back to make his argument again. He begins by stating that “the two largest nuclear powers, Russia and the U.S., are in a state of semi-direct armed conflict,” and that strategic deterrence—by which he means Mutually Assured Destruction—has failed, because the West no longer fears that Russia will employ nuclear weapons: The U.S., he writes, “expects that the enemy will not dare to use nuclear weapons.”
Trenin continues: “It is necessary to put fear back into the minds and hearts of the enemy’s leaders. The beneficial sort of fear, it’s worth stressing.”
