There seems to be an entire department at British intelligence’s GCHQ which could be called the “How To Boil the Russian Frog” department. Besides encouraging the view that what we are witnessing are rogue Ukrainian attacks and not NATO actions, another widely circulated line is that “Putin is bluffing” and that it’s really not risky to blind their ability to detect ICBM launches against them.
Exemplary of this last point is a trashy article in GlobalComment.com by Nikola Mikovic, a Serbian freelance journalist who previously was a reporter at the Politika daily newspaper in the Balkans. He argues that the attacks on Armavir and the other radar sites were explicitly designed to call Putin’s bluff.
Mikovic writes that “Russian President Vladimir Putin is the king of empty threats” who engages in “fear-mongering rhetoric.” Fortunately, “Ukraine and the West did not fall for his bluff. Instead, they decided to raise the stakes. On May 22, Ukraine attacked a Russian strategic early warning radar site near the city of Armavir in southern Russia.… The Kremlin turned a blind eye to the Ukrainian action. Ukraine’s actions came not only after Putin’s meeting with [Belarus President Aleksandr] Lukashenko, but also after Russia’s military launched drills involving tactical nuclear weapons. Kyiv has, therefore, clearly demonstrated that it does not fear a potential Russian nuclear response.”
Mikovic continues: “Sooner or later, Ukraine could get formal approval to use the American-made weapons to strike Russian territory. If the Kremlin responds with tactical nuclear weapons, it risks direct Western involvement in the Ukraine war. If it continues turning a blind eye to Ukrainian attacks, the Russian military and civilian infrastructure will suffer significant damage.”
Putin, in his May 28 press availability in Tashkent, once again warned the West that they are playing with fire by thinking that he is bluffing. “So, these officials from NATO countries … should be fully aware of what is at stake…. The focus is on the developments on the outskirts of Kharkov. But they were the ones to provoke those events. I made it clear publicly, I think it was six months ago, that if they continue to target residential neighborhoods, we will have to create a security area. Not long ago, we started doing what I said back then.
“They first provoked us in Donbass.… Then, they deceived us during the negotiating process and decided that they would defeat us on the battlefield by inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia. We warned them against making incursions into our territory, shelling Belgorod and neighboring areas, or else we will be forced to create a security area.…
“The only thing they are talking about is Russia opening a new front and attacking Kharkov. Not a word. Why is that? They did it with their own hands. Well, let them reap the fruits of their ingenuity. The same thing can happen in case the long-range precision weapons which you asked about is used.
“More broadly, this unending escalation can lead to serious consequences. If Europe were to face those serious consequences, what will the United States do, considering our strategic arms parity? It is hard to tell.
“Are they looking for a global conflict? I think they wanted to agree upon strategic arms, but we do not really see them being really eager to do so. They are talking about it but are not doing much to make it happen. We will wait and see what happens next.”
