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Did Moscow Avert Major Escalation with Call to Austin?

Yesterday, the New York Times, citing unnamed defense officials, reported that when Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov called U.S. Secretary of State Lloyd Austin on July 12, it was to relay a warning: The Russians had detected a Ukrainian covert operation in the works against Russia that they believed had the Americans’ blessing. Was the Pentagon aware of the plot, Belousov asked Austin, and its potential to ratchet up tensions between Moscow and Washington? Pentagon officials were surprised by the allegation and unaware of any such plot, two U.S. officials, and a third briefed on the call, said. But whatever Mr. Belousov revealed, all three officials said, it was taken seriously enough that the Americans contacted the Ukrainians, and said, essentially, if you’re thinking about doing something like this, don’t.

Despite Ukraine’s deep dependence on the United States for military, intelligence and diplomatic support, Ukrainian officials are not always transparent with their American counterparts about their military operations, especially those against Russian targets behind enemy lines. These operations, the Times says, have frustrated U.S. officials, who believe that they have not measurably improved Ukraine’s position on the battlefield but have risked alienating European allies and widening the war. Over the past two years, the operations that have unnerved the United States included a strike on a Russian air base on the western coast of Crimea, a truck bombing that destroyed part of the Kerch Strait Bridge, which links the Crimean peninsula to the Russian mainland, and drone strikes deep inside Russia.

The operation that Belousov reportedly warned Austin against is not clear, nor is the result of the phone call. However, it’s highly unlikely that Belousov called Austin on the day after the conclusion of the NATO July 9-11 summit without some compelling reason.