Biden’s performance in the debate with Trump, last week, has triggered panic within NATO. The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that the NATO plan to “Trump-proof” support to Ukraine by setting up a new military support and training mission for Ukraine, has taken on “new urgency” since the debate. “A big reason for the change is to Trump-proof the assistance effort to Ukraine,” said Ivo Daalder, who was the U.S. ambassador to NATO from 2009 to 2013, and now heads the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. “Rather than having Washington in charge of managing the training and assistance, NATO will be in charge. So even if the U.S. reduces or withdraws support for the effort, it won’t be eliminated.”
All that “Trump-proofing” really means is the moving of the bulk of the effort to provide military support to Ukraine from under the U.S. military to the NATO bureaucracy. It will still be under the purview of Gen. Christopher Cavoli, but as commander of NATO, rather than as commander of U.S. European Command.
With what the media dub far-right parties gaining voter support in France, the Netherlands, and across the European Union, the institutionalization of NATO’s role could also make military assistance to Ukraine less vulnerable to policy swings among alliance members. “It does provide for durability in the face of potential national political changes, whether it is as the result of elections in the United States, France, the U.K. or even in the European Union,” said retired three-star U.S. Army Gen. Douglas Lute, who served as the U.S. ambassador to NATO from 2013 to 2017.
The Journal reports further that alliance members hope that the summit will also agree on an annual financial pledge of military support to Ukraine, although terms are still under negotiation, NATO diplomats said. Recent discussions among alliance members have included setting a goal of roughly $40 billion annually and increasing the value of many countries’ contributions, though the U.S. would likely continue to be a major donor.
As for inviting Ukraine to join NATO, you can forget about that. The U.S. and Germany oppose extending such an invitation. Instead, NATO is likely to describe Ukraine’s bid to join NATO as “irreversible,” building on language in an alliance communiqué last year that “Ukraine’s future is in NATO” and a 2008 communiqué that said Ukraine would become a NATO member one day.
