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A Sober Assessment of the Kursk Battlefield Situation

Battles continue to rage in the Russian Kursk region that Ukraine invaded over a week ago, but the fog of war makes it difficult—if not impossible—to report the situation on the ground. Ukrainian military chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi claimed in a video posted on President Zelenskyy’s Telegram channel that Ukrainian forces control 1,000 sq. km inside Russia’s Kursk Region. However, Kursk Governor Alexei Smirnov reported yesterday that approximately 500 sq. km were still in Ukrainian hands.

Giving little credibility to the photos and videos circulating on social and other media, Austrian Army Col. Markus Reisner tries instead to provide some facts about the situation in Kursk, in an interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung today.

Contingents of three Ukrainian brigades are involved in the Kursk attack—the 22nd Mechanized Brigade, the 80th and 82nd Airborne Brigades, using Stryker and Marder infantry fighting vehicles. There is no evidence to confirm Ukrainian claims that Russia was forced to pull in troops from the Donbass front, but there is evidence that they pulled in troops from the area north of Kharkiv for reinforcements.

Whether Ukraine can benefit from the surprise effect for longer, remains to be seen. To keep their occupied territory in the Kursk region, enormous reinforcements of manpower and matériel would be required, which would have to be done at the same time that Ukraine is under heavy pressure from the Russian troops in the East and Southeast. Valuable reserves which the Ukrainians might need there, were used in the Kursk offensive instead.