Avia.pro cited Russian war correspondent Yuri Kotenok as warning of an imminent escalation of hostilities on the Ukrainian front, based on information from various sources both near and far. Kotenok thinks the increased tension is associated both with the ambitions of the military-political leadership of Ukraine and with the recommendations of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff. It is predicted that an aggravation of the situation on the Northeast Military District fronts may occur before the end of August.
After noting the failure of the offensive to capture the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, Kotenok says that the situation is dictated not only by the plans of Washington and Kyiv, but also by artificial intelligence calculations that simulate combat scenarios. According to these calculations, given the current course of events, Ukraine and its Western allies will inevitably lose the conflict, due to limited resources and war fatigue. To turn the situation around, Ukraine would need to achieve real success, not just media success.
Kotenok goes on to identify several areas where he thinks the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) is likely to escalate, including in Zaporozhye, and the Kinburn and Tendrovsk spits of the Kherson region, and on the coast of Crimea. In these operations, the AFU may try to attack the Crimean Bridge and strike Sevastopol from the sea and air. Such landing operations, in his opinion, pursue several goals: distracting Russian forces, creating panic among the population and, possibly, briefly seizing beachheads on the coast. About a week-and-a-half ago, Russian forces defeated a Ukrainian special-forces landing on the Kinburn spit, which lies on the south side of the exit of the Dnieper River into the Black Sea.
