The choice of Yahya Sinwar to replace Ismail Haniyeh as head of the Hamas Politburo is considered a surprise by some circles. A commentary in the Jerusalem Post by Israeli Professor Kobi Michael of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, asserts that a ceasefire deal with Sinwar would be more likely than one with Haniyeh.
Up until now Sinwar was seen as only the leader of Hamas in Gaza. The fact that he is still in Gaza under siege might also be problematic. Kobi Michael also asserts that Sinwar was looking towards Egypt as the key mediator, which is important, while Haniyeh was more aligned with Qatar. It is well known that there have been tensions between the Hamas leadership inside Gaza and that outside of it.
“Tensions have only worsened since October 7 and the beginning of hostage negotiations. The Gaza leadership, led by Sinwar, set the tone and made the decisions, not the external leadership. Sinwar, who focuses on Egypt as the main mediator, has not hidden his disdain for Haniyeh, who, in turn, placed his hopes on Qatar,” writes Kobi Michael.
“Therefore, Egypt has a significantly greater influence on the person who, until yesterday, was just the organization’s leader in Gaza, while Qatar’s influence on him is much smaller.”
