The Lead

Will Ukraine or Israel First Trigger Nuclear War—Time To Place Your Bets?

by David Shavin (EIRNS) — Sep. 19, 2024

It’s a simple argument, or fantasy. If you never flinch, and just keep bluffing your opponent, doubling- and tripling-down on threats, sooner or later they will have to bend to your will.

Today, the European Parliament voted overwhelmingly to remove the controls on Kiev’s use of Western long-range missiles deeper and deeper into Russia, the largest thermonuclear power in the world. The resolution had 23 other calls to action, designed to crush Russia with sanctions, by seizing their funds, by adding Germany’s Taurus missiles to the British, French and U.S. missiles, etc. But the key issue is the nuclear showdown. Throw everything into the pot and see if Moscow flinches.

Zelenskyy’s nightly address featured his long-awaited “victory” plan, which apparently pivots on—guess what—firing Western long-range missiles into Russia. Zelenskyy gave no details, just the announcement that everything is perfectly planned out and all that is required is that the allies begin the implementation of the master plan.

With the inevitable collapse of Ukraine’s troops on the ground within full view, with the inability of the West to ramp up production of sufficient ammunition, with the last reserve of manpower in Ukraine spent in a public relations spectacle in the remote border area of Kursk, etc., the EU Parliament has no better idea than to double-down and triple-down on their provocative behavior.

Israel’s present government also has no way forward but permanent warfare. The “Eretz Yisrael” ("Greater Israel") faction today is now taking their population war against the Palestinians of Gaza to Lebanon. The Jerusalem Post reports that Israel’s military commanders are on standby for a ground invasion of Lebanon. First, Israel wants to solicit a counterstrike from Hezbollah and/or Beirut, and to that end, they keep stepping up their provocations. If assassinating a foreign guest attending Iran’s Presidential inauguration ceremonies doesn’t yield the desired counterattack, no problem—just add more escalation. If they don’t restrain themselves, that works—there’s more escalation. If blowing up pagers in Lebanon on Sept. 17, with thousands of injuries around the country, doesn’t do the trick, then add in more airstrikes. And there’s no point in hiding the ugliness of the whole process, as displaying the crude thuggery helps push the process forward.

The addictive behavior of these thuggish proxy wars is not explained by bad Ukrainians or bad Israelis. The sickness described above is derived from the obscenely cancerous financial derivatives bubble and the sick psychological mania behind the need to degrade, debase and conquer the opponent, that one finds in both the trading pits and the private clubs of London. What other logic, for example, stands behind creating “bad banks” to hold the insoluble bad paper from the previous round of baseless speculation? Whether it is just digging a bigger hole, devising a larger threat, adding another trillion or two to the national debt, or graduating to a stronger drug, doubling down on bluffs never has a good ending. The situation obviously calls for a healthy intervention.

The name for peace is economic development—not money, but economic development. Admittedly, the byproduct is that currencies are stabilized, that money can function—but the reality is that there is no substitute for raising the cultural and skill levels of populations, to be capable of assimilating and functioning in a world of scientific breakthroughs. And that requires finding the humanity in those neighbors in this large world that may not look or talk exactly like you. Here’s a simple example as to how that works, the “Oasis Plan”.

The International Peace Coalition’s weekly interventions over the last year are the living model for the way forward. See for yourself. Here’s the video of last Friday’s session No. 67, and a link to International Peace Coalition Friday meetings on the Schiller Institute website.