On Oct. 13, six of the eleven nations of the Nile River drainage basin—including Burundi, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda—announced the “entry into force” of the Agreement on the Nile River Basin Cooperative Framework, which had been agreed to earlier this year. A product of over a decade of negotiation between the 10 nations within the nile drainage area (Burundi, the DRC, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, with Eritrea participating as an observer) and supposedly a triumph of diplomacy and “Africans solving African problems,” the agreement had actually been rejected by Egypt and Sudan two days earlier.
In their rejection notice, Egypt and Sudan stated that they rejected the “unilateral action” of what they called the “upstream nations,” and that they “have consistently advocated for a collaborative, all-inclusive mechanism among Nile Basin states. The specific choice of words here is significant, and points to the likely “elephant in the room” - the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the primary item distinguishing “upstream” from “downstream” nations. However, the rejection simply goes on to “[stress] the importance of prior notification, consultations, and scientific assessments of the impacts of water projects,” according to Egypt’s Ahram.
The newly announced Framework was designed to replace the Nile Basin Initiative, dating from 1999. According to the announcement, the new Framework is “the result of over a decade of negotiation,” which roughly corresponds to the beginning of serious progress on the GERD. Without having compared them side by side, the 1999 “Initiative” probably contains some sort of prohibition on interfering with “natural” water flow, though the announcement of the new Framework makes no mention of any such discussion.
The heart of the Framework is the establishment of a Nile River Basin Commission, whose main duties would include acting “as a forum for resolving disputes related to the Nile’s water usage.” What Egypt and Sudan are likely objecting to is the “diluting” of their voices by involving additional “upstream” nations in the negotiations related to GERD water management.
The final words of the Framework seem to recognize this underlying friction, while offering the olive branch to all. “We wish to take this opportunity to inform all the brotherly countries of the Nile Basin that have not signed the CFA that it remains open for them to join at any time. Being part of the Commission enables them to influence decisions that could impact their access and use of the common Nile water resources.”
And so it is offered: Move forward with us, or get out of the way.
