In an Oct. 1 article, Gideon Rachman, the chief foreign affairs commentator of the Financial Times, wrote that “Israel and Iran have just delivered the US election’s ‘October surprise’. With American policy in the Middle East in tatters, Donald Trump could be the principal beneficiary of escalation in the region.”
Rachman quotes Jake Sullivan warning that there will be “severe consequences” for Iran and has said that the US will “work with Israel,” and states: “That sounds ominously like a threat of joint US-Israeli military action against Iran.” He then echoes the line that Iran is on its back foot because of the Hezbollah and Hamas situation, and therefore “Benjamin Netanyahu clearly feels that it has its enemies on the run. It may want to hit back hard at Iran, hoping to do lasting damage to the Islamic republic and perhaps to its feared nuclear program… Some in Tehran may fear that they are walking into a trap by once again firing missiles at Israel.”
Rachman argues this is the right moment for Israel to move. “The Israeli government understands that defying the Biden administration is almost risk-free. Indeed, there could even be some benefits if it draws the US into deploying its military might against Iran… Every time there is a presidential election in America, there is speculation about a possible `October surprise’ that upturns the race with only weeks left before the vote. Israel and Iran have just delivered this election’s October surprise, and Trump may be the beneficiary.”
