Former State Department official Josh Paul, who resigned last year over the Biden administration’s failure to obey U.S. laws on arms transfers and human rights with respect to Israel, warned in an Oct. 14 posting on his LinkedIn site that the THAAD deployment is an escalatory step. “Israeli civilians, like all peoples, should not have to live under the threat of rocket fire or ballistic missiles, and on its face, THAAD provides that protection. But does it truly?” he asked. “As others have noted, the THAAD deployment may make Prime Minister Netanyahu more comfortable in ordering a devastating and disproportionate strike against Iran. Even if it succeeds in its tactical objectives, such a strike would be a step away from a regional settlement and lasting peace. The decision to deploy THAAD to Israel is not simply a decision to protect Israel—it is a decision to enable further military escalation. A policy that was truly in the Israeli interest would be one that used American leverage to wind down Israel’s military operations, end the occupation, and frame a pathway to a just and lasting peace.”
Paul suggests that Iran will take into account the presence of the THAAD if it responds to an Israeli reprisal attack. This could include increasing its own missile load out to overwhelm the THAAD’s 48 launch tubes, or other measures, such as closing the Strait of Hormuz.
“For a year, faced with a wide array of alternatives, each time the Biden Administration has chosen to double-down on unconditional support for Israel,” Paul concluded. “The consequences so far have been devastating for Palestinians, destabilizing for the Middle East, and damaging to America.”
Even more provocative than the mere presence of the THAAD battery, though not mentioned by Paul, are the 100 or so U.S. soldiers who will man it. No one has explained what will happen should there be American casualties resulting from the next Iranian missile strike.
