This morning in Moldova, around 7:30 a.m. local time, the pro-EU referendum pushed by President Maia Sandu had been defeated. At that point, 95% of the 1.2 million ballots had been counted, and a reported 52% had voted “No.” With approximately 60,000 ballots left to be examined, the “Yes” amount was approximately 57,000 behind. All Sandu needed were at least 58,500 of the remaining 60,000 ballots to save her referendum!
A few hours later, with over 99% of the ballots counted, the “Yes” vote had apparently garnered almost 63,000 more votes, while the “No” vote actually declined by several thousand. The Western media not only praised the success of democracy, but also blamed Russian foreign interference for making the referendum so close.
The economy of Moldova, a neighbor of Ukraine, has suffered from Sandu’s hard line on energy supplies from Russia. Previously, they were already in trouble, as the vast majority of Moldova’s electricity (and industry) had come from its far eastern border, from projects built under the Soviet Union in what is now Transnistria. As with Ukraine’s Donbass, it was the industrial backbone of the country with a majority of Russian speakers.
Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Moscow’s Kremlin stated, or perhaps understated, the obvious: “What we see is a mechanically hard-to-explain rate of increase in votes in favor of Sandu and in favor of those referendum participants who favored an EU orientation.” Separately, he claimed that the election was already suspect before this morning’s machinations, as, during the campaigning, the opposition to the government “were persecuted, they were thrown into prisons, they were interrogated, they were not allowed into the country, the media were closed, Internet resources were blocked and so on.”
For her part, Sandu and her government has accused a Moldovan tycoon, Ilan Shor, of criminal interference in the election. Sandu had banned Shor’s political party and, when he was accused of financial fraud, he fled to Russia. He has been quite public that he has put up money to hire Moldovans to campaign against the referendum. Shor said it was legitimate to hire campaign workers. Moldovan police arrested hundreds of people accused of participating in a “vote-buying scheme” and claimed that Shor tried to influence a network of some 130,000 voters.
Early this morning, local time (GMT+3), when it appeared mathematically impossible for Sandu to win the referendum, Shor sent her the message, “Today I congratulate you, you lost the battle”—however, he seems to have spoken too soon. Also early this morning, when Sandu’s government was surprised by the population’s rejection of their referendum, Sandu made a stark announcement to the nation: “Criminal groups, working together with foreign forces hostile to our national interests, have attacked our country with tens of millions of euros, lies and propaganda.... Their objective was to undermine a democratic process.” She said that there was “clear evidence” of her charges. She vowed to “respond with firm decisions.”
Peskov commented: “If she is saying that she did not receive votes because of certain criminal groups, she must present evidence. And it would be nice for Mrs. Sandu to explain such a large number of voices which dissent from her line. Are these also criminal gangs? Or does she mean that Moldovan citizens who do not support her are associated with criminal gangs? There are a lot of nuances here.”
Cristian Cantir, a Moldovan associate professor of international relations at Oakland University, in Michigan told The Associated Press that earlier polls might have “overestimated the pro-EU feeling” inside Moldova and the referendum would have failed to pass without votes from outside the country. “It’s going to be particularly problematic because ... it’s going to feed into narratives that are pushed by the Kremlin and pro-Russian forces.”
