NATO backers are reportedly taking comfort in a year-old U.S. law that was passed with Donald Trump in mind aimed at preventing him from withdrawing the U.S. from the alliance unless Congress approves. But, experts told Politico, Trump may have a way around it. They warn that Trump could try to sidestep the Congress NATO guardrail, citing presidential authority over foreign policy—an approach he used before to bypass congressional restrictions on treaty withdrawal.
The law is “not airtight,” said Scott Anderson, a Brookings Institution scholar and senior editor of Lawfare who has argued for firmer restrictions on a President leaving NATO. What it does do, he said, is set up a direct constitutional conflict with Congress if a President does try to withdraw. “This is not open and shut, this is about Congress telling you you can’t do this, and if you ignore Congress, you’re going to have to fight us in the courts over it,” Anderson said.
If Trump simply declared he was pulling out of the Alliance, it’s unclear whether Congress would have the legal standing to actually sue him for ignoring the law, according to Curtis Bradley, the Allen M. Singer distinguished service professor at the University of Chicago Law School. “For the issue to be litigated, there would need to be someone with standing to sue,” Bradley said in an email. “The only party I can think of who might have standing would be Congress itself, but it is not clear that the Republicans in Congress (who will at least control the Senate) would support such a suit.”
Even if Trump doesn’t withdraw the U.S. from the Alliance there are fears of tensions between him and NATO members. “There’ll be a lot of internal tension within the alliance,” former NATO commander Adm. James Stavridis (ret.) warned during an interview with MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell on Nov. 8, reported The Hill. Stavridis said the “internal tension” likely will originate from two concerns. “It’ll stem from two things: one is increased pressure from the Trump administration for our European allies to increase their defense spending,” he said. “Secondly, your point Andrea, there’ll be tension about Ukraine and the way forward,” Stavridis added, citing Trump’s skepticism about American support for Ukraine.
