German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, leader now, after the exit of the Free Democrats, of a minority government of Social Democrats and Greens, has so far rejected to change his announced timetable for a vote of no confidence in mid-January and early elections following in March-April. Christian Democratic Union opposition leader Friedrich Merz, who would like to replace Scholz right away as Chancellor, as well as numerous CEOs of German industrial companies and associations have called for earlier elections. Insiders are waiting for the second round of this crisis, which may feature the Greens opening up to an alternative coalition with Merz, the prelude to that being that they would signal they would enter a new government led by him.
A no-confidence vote against Scholz is risky, because even if all other parties in the Bundestag voted against Scholz’s Social Democrats, Merz might not get the required two-thirds majority for a no-confidence vote to take place. Most may vote against Scholz, but not all of them would vote for Merz, who under German parliamentary law must declare his candidacy at the beginning of this whole procedure.
