The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) released in December its 2024 Long Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) Winter edition, a twice-yearly evaluation of the United States’ electricity supply and transmission networks. The report takes the perspective of what will be the reliability ten years into the future.
The LTRA findings indicate a dramatic problem for the United States. The U.S., Canada, and Mexico are divided up into different energy supply and transmission districts. The report finds that one regional district, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator is at “high risk” of energy shortages, and another 10 regional districts are at “elevated” risk of energy shortages. Put another way, over half of North America is at “elevated” or higher risk of energy shortages. The NERC’s specific concern is that, for several regions, initial shortfall years are slated to begin over the next three years of 2025 to 2028.
There are interrelated forces causing this problem:
