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Tug of War over the Future of Russia's Military Bases in Syria

A lengthy article about Syria in the Dec. 16 edition of The Economist of London centered its attention on whether the new authorities in Syria will allow Russia to keep its current naval base in Tartus and its air base in Khmeimim. London has been very keen on expelling Russia from the Mediterranean region altogether, but the disgruntled article concludes: “A full Russian exit looks unlikely.”

The new Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) authorities in Syria are negotiating with Russia, they report, and “HTS has conceded that it will probably allow Russia to keep some or all of its bases. And it is likely to respect Russia’s lease at Tartus port…. That would mean Russia has retained access to its only deepwater naval facility on the Mediterranean.”

The European Union has joined the efforts to pressure HTS to expel the Russians. An article in Kyiv Post was blunt in its headline: “You Kick Out Russians, We Lift Sanctions, EU Hints to Syrian Authorities.” After a meeting of EU Foreign Ministers, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas told the press: “For us, it’s not only the words, but we want to see the deeds.” Kallas, the former Estonian Prime Minister, said that “many foreign ministers” agreed that Moscow’s military presence is “a base where activities are carried out with regard to Africa and the southern neighbors,” adding that it “raises concerns regarding European security.” Kallas said the closure of Russia’s Syrian bases would be on the agenda in forthcoming discussions with Syria’s provisional government.

Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp also told reporters that “regarding the Russian military bases in Syria, we want the Russians out.”

Despite all the pressure, the HTS has opened discussions with Russia, according to the Iran daily An Nahar. “In an attempt to appear as a realistic politician who does not seek revenge, al-Julani entered into negotiations with Russia regarding its air base in Khmeimim and its naval base in Tartus. It seems that this is a sign of his desire to establish a balance in the foreign relations of the new regime.”

An Nahar writes: “Syria is still in the throes of the seismic transformation that occurred within ten days. Everyone is already rushing to Damascus to search for roles that secure the interests of all those rushing.”