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What Impact Will Mass Deportations Have on the U.S. Economy?

It is widely expected that, among the first things that the incoming Trump administration will do, is to begin its stated policy of mass deportations of illegal migrants in the U.S. London’s The Economist in a Jan. 6 article raised questions about the impact this will have on the U.S. economy. Citing recent findings of the Pew Research Center, they note that there were about 11 million “unauthorized migrants” in the U.S. in 2022, of which some 8.3 million—a disproportionately high percentage—were in the labor force. The article continues: “A recent surge means the number will now be higher. Experts estimate there may be 10 million unauthorized workers, representing 6% of the labor force. Many work on building sites and farms, as well as in restaurants. California, Florida, New York and Texas are home to nearly half of them. The economic fallout from a deportation of this population—whether full or, as is more likely, partial,” they note, will be much larger than most think.

“A study by Chloe East of the University of Colorado Denver and co-authors found that deportations under President Barack Obama led to the loss of one native-born job for every 11 migrants thrown out the country. A paper from the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think-tank, offers similar findings.” This will hit the construction sector particularly hard.

There is another way in which Trump’s mass deportation policy will likely backfire: the stated goal of stopping the drug trade. It is highly likely that, as the mass deportations proceed, the well-organized apparatus that will step in to “help” the desperate migrants will be the drug-running networks which already control not only drugs but also the organized trafficking of illegal migrants into the country in the first place. In short, London’s Dope, Inc. apparatus stands to gain massively from Trump’s announced war on illegal migrants.