While much of the media are focussed on the absurd, “who will win the trade wars,” the actual physical economy, and producers are taking big hits. Any strategy which bankrupts or cripples producers is unlikely to generate a trade surplus.
Farm sector: During the last trade war, triggered by President Trump’s 2018 tariffs directed mostly at China, President Trump bragged on a Truth Social post that he “rewarded” U.S. farmers with a $28 billion bailout to rescue farmers from the consequences of his tariffs. China has been the largest customer of U.S. agricultural exports. While President Trump clearly hopes to negotiate a better deal, the 2025 tariffs could lead to catastrophe. On April 15 the White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt already confirmed that another, much larger bailout is being considered for farmers, as agricultural exports to China of commodities, such as soybeans, may go to zero this year, a devastating blow to U.S. farmers.
