The predatory trade war which the gullible Trump Administration has unleashed against the whole world—but especially China—is set to backfire for reasons which Trump and his ill-intentioned British-linked advisers do not understand. It has little to do with money, and calculations of trade deficits and tariffs, and everything to do with physical economy. China can already outproduce the U.S., and at a higher scientific level, and is positioned to increase ties with those parts of the world economy that are growing.
Consider just a few fundamentals. China’s total population is about four times that of the United States. In 2024, China’s manufacturing labor force was approximately 122 million workers, which constitutes 15.7% of China’s labor force of 775 million; the United States’ manufacturing labor force was 12.9 million, which constitutes 7.6% of its labor force of 169 million. Not only is the ratio of China’s manufacturing workforce to total labor force twice the ratio in the United States, but China’s manufacturing labor force is nine and a half times greater in absolute size than that of the United States.
This shows up in critical industrial and infrastructure sectors. For example, take raw steel production: In 2024, China produced 1.01 billion tons of raw steel; the United States produced 80 million tons, making China’s output 12.5 times greater than that of the U.S. Or take machine tools: In 2024, China produced $29 billion worth of machine tools; the U.S. produced $4.5 billion: China’s production was nearly 6.5 times larger. Or {high-speed rail systems: In 2024, China operated 40,000 km of electrified high-speed rail; the United States operated only 160 km, on the books, although in reality few, if any, trains on those lines actually run at high speed.
Second, China already began the shift away from reliance on exports to the United States. In 2018, China exported $539 billion worth of goods to the United States, which accounted for 19.2% of its total goods exports; in 2024, that fell to $439 billion of goods exports to the U.S., which accounted for 12.2 % of China’s growing $3.58 trillion of total goods exports.
