According to news reports, U.S. President Donald Trump is not convinced that Iran’s nuclear program, particularly the Fordow enrichment plant built deep inside a mountain, can be permanently destroyed by military means. Axios reported last night that Trump has been pressing his advisors on whether the U.S. could really destroy the Fordow plant using the 30,000-lb. Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bomb—which can only be carried by the B-2 stealth bomber—and whether doing so would end Iran’s nuclear program and whether it would end the war.
Trump’s doubts June 18 about the certainty of success are one reason he was still questioning whether to move forward with a strike, Axios says. Trump wants to make sure such an attack is really needed, wouldn’t drag the U.S. into a prolonged war in the Middle East—and most of all, would actually achieve the objective of destroying Iran’s nuclear program, unnamed U.S. officials told the publication.
“We are the only ones who have the capability to do it, but that doesn’t mean I am going to do it,” Trump said June 18, when asked whether he considers it essential to destroy Fordow. “I have been asked about it by everybody, but I haven’t made a decision.”
An unnamed U.S. official told Axios that Trump has specifically asked his military advisors whether the MOP would destroy Fordow. Pentagon officials told Trump they’re confident it would, according to the official. But it’s not clear Trump was convinced. MOPs have never been used on the battlefield, though they went through several tests during development, current and former U.S. officials say.
“The bunker buster will work. It’s not a capabilities issue. We have the capability. But there’s an entire plan [for a possible attack]. It’s not just, drop a bunker buster and declare victory,” another top U.S. official said. In other words, such a mission could still fail, or otherwise not generate the expected results.
The Financial Times ran a similar report, but explaining in detail how complex such an operation would be. Military experts told FT that any bombing mission into Iran would be “fraught with peril” and would need days of planning and advance positioning of matériel and personnel, including fighter jets to fly alongside and protect B-2 stealth bombers that would be tasked with dropping the MOPs. “In order to deliver this thing, we have to make sure that we’re operating in an environment where we kind of control all the variables where air defense systems of the Iranians or electronic warfare, things can be suppressed,” retired four-star General Joseph Votel, former commander of U.S. Central Command, told FT. Should the U.S. decide to go ahead and strike Fordow “we want to make sure that we’re going to be successful in it,” he added.
