Israel’s campaign of precision strikes will not bring about “regime change” in Iran, nor destroy its nuclear program, argues Robert Pape, Professor of Political Science and Director of the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats, in a commentary published in Foreign Affairs on June 17.
“But even as it continues to score individual victories, Israel appears to be falling into the ‘smart-bomb trap,’ in which overconfidence in precision weapons and intelligence not only allows the country’s leaders to believe that they can stop an Iranian nuclear breakout and even topple the regime of the Islamic Republic but also leaves Israel less secure than before,” Pape writes. “Airpower, no matter how targeted and intense, is not certain to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program in its entirety, nor will it clear a path for regime change in Tehran. In fact, if the historical record is any indication, Israel’s overconfidence in what its technologically advanced weapons can do is likely to harden Iran’s resolve and produce the opposite of its intended results: a more dangerous Iran, now armed with nuclear weapons. Without a ground invasion (highly improbable) or direct U.S. support (which the Trump administration may be wary to provide), Israel’s military successes in Iran and beyond could very well be short-lived.”
