The World Trade Organization (WTO) on Oct. 7 raised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2025 to 2.4%, up from its previous projection of 0.9% made in August. According to the WTO’s latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, global GDP is projected to grow by 2.7% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026.
The value of South-South trade climbed 8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, outpacing the 6% growth in overall global trade value. AI-related goods, including semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment, played a particularly significant role, accounting for nearly half of total trade growth during the same six-month period. The trade value of such products surged 20% year-on-year.
At a press conference, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said that despite the “stiff headwinds” from the U.S. unilateral actions and unprecedented rise in trade policy uncertainty, trade has shown resilience.
China’s daily Global Times reports that the WTO report shows trade performance varies widely across regions, with Asia and Africa expected to record the fastest export growth in 2025, while Europe will likely see slower growth and North America will face declining exports.
