U.S. President Donald Trump departed Washington, D.C. on Oct. 14—which continues to function with a shut-down government—on a five-day trip to Asia. Most significant of the string of diplomatic activities is his likely meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping on Oct. 30, while both are in Seoul, South Korea for the APEC summit. Trump is talking very positively about being able to iron out trade differences with China at that meeting, but the issues may not be as susceptible to “deal-making” as he thinks.
Politico carries an article which calls this “Trump’s most perilous foreign trip yet,” because his “week-long swing through Asia could cement Trump’s image as master dealmaker—or trigger the economic crisis he’s long vowed to prevent.”
“If talks with Xi collapse, confronting an escalating trade war likely to rattle markets, ripple through supply chains and expose how dependent the U.S. remains on China for critical minerals. The White House has said the two leaders will meet Thursday [Oct. 30], but China has yet to confirm the meeting.”
Politico argues that, “to notch a win, Trump needs Xi to back away from some of his recent escalatory actions, like sweeping restrictions on products that have even trace amounts of Chinese rare earths in them.” But China may not be in a mood to make such concessions.
India is another major nation that has not taken Trump’s tariff warfare lightly. Threatened with 50% tariffs unless he allows India’s agricultural sector to be destroyed with cheaper foreign imports, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has stated that his country will not bow to such pressure tactics. Modi has made sure to not put himself in a situation where he could not sidestep a meeting with Trump, and so he has cancelled his expected participation in the ASEAN summit in Malaysia this Oct. 26-28. Trump will be there… but Modi won’t.
